China's rare-earth manifesto

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by Graeme Tozer

For nearly a month, China has blocked the export to Japan of rare–earth metals, obscure minerals with names that sound like science–fiction fantasies but whose applications make them essential to modern life. Manufacturers employ the 17 rare–earth elements in everything from smart bombs to windshields; the average car contains close to five kilograms of rare earths. Wind turbines use magnets made from neodymium, halogen lights need scandium and the battery packs in hybrid cars use at least 12 kilograms of lanthanum. While their uses are myriad, more than 95% of the world's rare–earth supply currently originates in China. Even before its trade dispute with Japan, China this summer announced a 40% reduction in export quota for 2010 compared with the previous year. As China hoards its precious minerals, manufacturers scramble for other suppliers. And Canadian companies will benefit from the rare–earth rush. "End users want to see an alternative supply. So that's the opportunity that's presented itself," says Don Bubar, president and CEO of Avalon Rare Metals, which is developing an $ 899–million project in the Northwest Territories.





Avalon is "five years down a 10–year timeline" to getting its rare–earth deposit into production, according to Bubar. Other Canadian firms, such as Great Western Minerals Group and Quest Rare Minerals, have their own domestic projects in various stages of development. With roughly 70 rare–earth exploration companies listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange alone, there is now prospecting taking place from British Columbia to New Brunswick. Meanwhile, Great Western Minerals intends to start production using minerals from a South African mine within the next three years.




With demand increasing by roughly 9% annually over the past few years, the market for rare–earth metals will only increase as China constricts its exports. "Only recently have investors recognized the explosive growth in rare–earth metals, caused by the demand for all these gadgets that people use," says Scott Walters, managing partner with MaxCapital Markets, a Toronto investment firm. "You backstop that with China's massive stockpile, and people want to hedge their exposure. And they're looking to Canada."




Industry watchers say developments like Avalon's Thor Lake project or Quest Rare Mineral's Strange Lake project in northern Quebec have the potential to deliver both a large quantity and full spectrum of rare–earth metals. But Canadian mining firms face competition beyond China. Mines in the States and Australia will likely be operational within two years, potentially covering 30% of global demand.




Concerns over China's rare–earth monopoly were only heightened by its decision to halt exports to Japan following a collision between a Chinese fishing boat and Japanese patrol boats. Even if tensions ease, Chinese rare–earth exports are still expected to dwindle, with some experts projecting they will cease entirely by 2015. A report released this August by China's industry ministry calls for the country to dominate 70% of the worldwide market for computer components, fluorescent lights and other products containing rare–earth elements. Combined with consumers love for iPods, hybrid cars and flat–screen televisions, China could be driving a revolution in Canadian mining. "Even without the supposed cold war of rare earths with China, you'd still have demand for it," says Walters. "China is just the icing on the cake." 

 

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